Say hello to your new congressman
March 9th, 2008
Bill Foster beat Jim Oberweis by a margin of 6% to become the new 14th district congressman. I don’t think a lot of people expected a Foster win, and certainly not by such a large margin as this. The Chicago Tribune described it as a “stunning upset.”
The influential Capitol Fax Blog asks, “Now comes the big question: Will Oberweis be pushed out of the general election race?” That’s an interesting idea, but I don’t know who would replace him. Oberweis lent his campaign $2.3M, and somehow I doubt there are a lot of candidates in the area who are willing to dip into their savings to that extent, especially when the odds are going to be tough in November, assuming Obama is on the ballot.
And I don’t think Oberweis will be easy to push aside, because stepping out now certainly won’t help him in any future election. He’s more likely to consider this his last stand, his last chance at winning an election, because it is his last chance. And if that means doubling down what he’s “invested” in this race, I think he’ll do it. A 6% margin is a large one, but it’s not insurmountable.
Foster boasted that he had a superior system for turning out votes. If indeed this is about technology and turnout, then Oberweis has a chance. I will say that I haven’t received any mailings from the Oberweis campaign or pro-Oberweis groups. I have received mailings from pro-Foster groups at least once a week, it seems. So the Oberweis people either don’t have a good database or they’re not using it. This sort of problem is “technological” and can be overcome.
Congratulations to Bill Foster, wake-up call to Jim Oberweis.
I served as an Election Judge for Elgin Precinct 29 for the Special Election. With such a low turnout (only 19%) and few minorities or young people voting, I thought Oberweis would have a decided advantage. I was wrong.
Posted March 9th, 2008 at 2:23 pmI think the negative ads “Foster is quoted ‘there is nothing in this life that can’t be improved by throwing money at it’ didn’t work. People could tell that the words “throwing money” is not usually used to argue in favor of big spending. I also think his immigration views are seen as extreme by ordinary elderly voters.
It’s a shame. When I first heard about Overweis, I had a positive view of him from his excellent dairy business. Great ice cream and bottled milk with home delivery.
That’s interesting, Todd. I’m not familiar with the ads. Did these run on television?
Oberweis’s immigration position is stated here:
http://jimoberweis.com/issues/contentview.asp?c=42169
It is on the extreme side, because it opposes birthright citizenship, but I’m not sure that position has really been publicized.
I think this could have been a case where his campaign was simply incompetent. It may not have been about the issues at all. It could have just been poor management. I think the first thing he should do Monday morning is fire the campaign manager and whoever else needs to be fired and bring in people who will take this seriously. There are numerous indications that this campaign has not been run professionally, and I think the people in Washington will very quickly put the pressure on him to get his campaign together.
I think this could have been a combination of complacency on the part of Republicans who just assumed that Oberweis would win and so didn’t bother to turn out, and a general lack of aggressiveness in the Oberweis turnout operation.
Bill Foster has obviously run a good organization, and deserves a lot of credit for that. The question now is whether Oberweis can build a similar organization and corral the votes in seven or eight months time. I think he can, but he’ll need to take drastic action immediately.
Posted March 9th, 2008 at 9:37 pmAmong other reasons - in the end I voted for Bill Foster because I can’t believe the amount of paper that was wasted in mailing campaign literature - I was getting 2 items 2-3 times each week, and Bill Foster was the lesser of the two in mail quanity. Additionally, Oberweis didn’t respond to AARP’s questionaire - I’m 8 years from retirement but he must not understand the influence AARP has.
Posted March 19th, 2008 at 10:27 am